It seems like it's hard to mess up Fantasyland. After all, you see all your cards at once. Beyond avoiding
an obvious mis-set, are you acheiving highest situational hand strength and max value from your opponent(s)?
OFC Theory: The "Cannibals": Cards that merge draw and value ranges, adding to one row while simultaneously
subtracting from another.
OPEN FACE ODDS
PINEAPPLE OPEN FACE STRATEGY
Categories: Pineapple, Probability
Don't Rush the Flush - Part II
July 24, 2014 -- Here is another great spot to talk about the flush draw in Pineapple Open Face Chinese poker,
and how strategy can be influenced purely by the math.
Here is the starting hand:
There are several reasons one might break up 4-to-the-flush in an OFC hand, and this starting five is a
perfect example of when and why to do it.
A pair is an excellent reason to break it up. In this case it's JJ which is a strong start to the middle row. And even out of position and not knowing what your opponent will be dealt, the odds of completing the back row flush
here are still 74%.
3 of hearts and a black Queen arrive on the first pull, placed in back and front. Now the flush draw odds actually increase to
82%, with only 1 heart needed, 6 live outs, and 9 cards to come.
On the 2nd pull there is a decision to be made. Complete the flush now? If so, set the trip Jacks? Or the Queen? Or, deny the flush
again, and set both the Q and J?
The most conservative play is to complete the flush and set JJJ in the middle. But what are the odds if I go ahead with
the QQ/JJJ, leaving the heart draw open, in other words discarding the King?
With 6 cards to come and 5 live hearts, the odds are 65% I will still catch a heart. Generally speaking I like to be above
the 50% mark when gambling, and in this case the risk is easily justified. My opponents' board is bricking pretty hard, so if
I catch my heart I will most likely scoop for a 19 point score PLUS Fantasyland EV (around 6 points), and if I foul, there's no indication I will lose more than
6 points. For the sake of argument I will assume I foul 35% of the time WITH my opponent making a flush in back.
So 65% of the time I win 25 points (16.25), and 35% of the time I lose 10 points (-3.5), which gives an EV
to the play of +12.75. So I'm happy to gamble here.
The gamble in action. Bye bye King of hearts!
A pair of 9's shows up on the 3rd pull with no heart, and then the final
The heart comes in, as it should around 2 out of 3 times.
Villain makes the flush, but it's still a +15 point win, and of course the trip to Fantasyland, which ended up +16, so
overall it was a +31 point play.
It's a common leak to jump the gun on the flush draw and complete too early, and this is usually coming from a place of
fear, misplaced conservatism (often a holdover from standard OFC strategy), or a general lack of odds knowledge.
But the best Pineapple players are making critical decisions based on the math. Are you?
If you'd like your very own set of heads up and 3-handed Pineapple odds charts, you can purchase them here for a couple bucks:
PINEAPPLE OFC CHARTS
And, if you haven't given the ABC app a try yet, you can find it in the Apple app store here:
ABC CHINESE POKER APP